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Sunday, October 23, 2016

IT or NON IT sector- A new R & D in Trend Prediction is required

IT or NON IT sector- A new R & D in Trend Prediction is required

Really very good and timely article as it is an eye opener for all.

It lays on table the harsh realities and facts as they are and also suggests the much needed course correction.

It is easy to sit in media rooms and do analysis and post mortem, though they may be necessary to not to repeat similar mistake or prepare for similar eventuality.

However, this genre of problems is not just for IT but applies to all activities across the spectrum of economy and business where the churning process is happening at great speed and also throws many factors tangentially.

Therefore it becomes difficult for anyone even to predict trends.

I keep saying that the changes happening in economics and politics are so attractive but unpredictable, including the tools used or prediction that what happens is like designs that may emerge because all aspects and arms of modern economics, present day politics as well as the means to implement them through various technological tools are too complex and operate with multiple dimensions and myriad dynamics involving various factors.

Besides, they keep changing their patterns as unpredictably like those of a kaleidoscope in a monkey’s hand. 

But what happens in digital technology and cyber world is like a monkey sitting inside a kaleidoscope.

So, vulnerability and volatility of the patterns of change are difficult to comprehend and even see.

Therefore, I think, along with many new and emerging technologies and fields of studies with R&D holding its relevance as always, innovations, AI and so on trade, commerce and business must also have specialized field of study for predicting probable or emerging economic trends in some scientific way taking into consideration the exigencies of circumstances and imperatives for a advancing human life styles making use of immense data, surveys , statistics, mathematical models, AI  that are already available.

Most importantly we all must works on new models suitable to our milieu rather than merely copying what someone has produced somewhere else presuming that it would work everywhere and can or may be a panacea for most of the ills of our economy.

We may come up with many models some useful some directly going into dust bin but does not matter.

That is better than merely copying and living on illusion then it will be like the monk story [1]

Barbara Marciniak said, “Everything changes when you start to emit your own frequency rather than absorbing the frequencies around you, when you start imprinting your intent on the universe rather than receiving an imprint from existence.”

To me economics, like many things in life, is all about unbiased observations, unprejudiced perceptions, doing away with defensive statistical justifications, cutting off camouflaging irrelevant logical fallacies, chaffing off bombastic jargons, curtailing the instinct to churn out untested or untestable theories  and instead engage in interpretations of all the observed facts  uninfluenced by any ideological affiliations taking into consideration various factors that impact and/or involved in these facts appropriate to the context and relevant to the region.

[1] A new monk arrives at the monastery and is assigned to help the other monks in copying the old texts by hand. He notices, however, that instead of copying the original books, they are copying the copies.

So, the new monk goes to the head monk to ask him about this. He points out that if there was an error in the first copy, that error would be continued in all of the other copies. The head monk says, "We have been copying from the copies for centuries, but you make a good point, my son”.

So, he goes down into the cellar with one of the copies to check it against the original. After many hours still the head monk does not return.

So, one of the monks goes downstairs to look for him. 

He hears sobbing coming from the back of the cellar and finds the old monk leaning over one of the original books sobbing and also banging his head against the wall. He asks what's wrong.

You have really awakened us, we have missed the ‘R’ [I am not referring to any party leader here].

“In the original the word is celebrate” says the old monk with tears in his eyes.

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