IT or NON IT sector- A
new R & D in Trend Prediction is required
Really very good and timely article as it is an eye opener for all.
It
lays on table the harsh realities and facts as they are and also suggests the
much needed course correction.
It
is easy to sit in media rooms and do analysis and post mortem, though they may
be necessary to not to repeat similar mistake or prepare for similar eventuality.
However,
this genre of problems is not just for IT but applies to all activities across
the spectrum of economy and business where the churning process is happening at
great speed and also throws many factors tangentially.
Therefore
it becomes difficult for anyone even to predict trends.
I
keep saying that the changes happening in economics and politics are so attractive
but unpredictable, including the tools used or prediction that what happens is
like designs that may emerge because all aspects and arms of modern economics, present
day politics as well as the means to implement them through various technological
tools are too complex and operate with multiple dimensions and myriad dynamics
involving various factors.
Besides,
they keep changing their patterns as unpredictably like those of a kaleidoscope
in a monkey’s hand.
But
what happens in digital technology and cyber world is like a monkey sitting
inside a kaleidoscope.
So,
vulnerability and volatility of the patterns of change are difficult to
comprehend and even see.
Therefore,
I think, along with many new and emerging technologies and fields of studies
with R&D holding its relevance as always, innovations, AI and so on trade, commerce
and business must also have specialized field of study for predicting probable or
emerging economic trends in some scientific way taking into consideration the exigencies
of circumstances and imperatives for a advancing human life styles making use
of immense data, surveys , statistics, mathematical models, AI that are already available.
Most
importantly we all must works on new models suitable to our milieu rather than
merely copying what someone has produced somewhere else presuming that it would
work everywhere and can or may be a panacea for most of the ills of our
economy.
We
may come up with many models some useful some directly going into dust bin but
does not matter.
That
is better than merely copying and living on illusion then it will be like the
monk story [1]
Barbara Marciniak said, “Everything
changes when you start to emit your own frequency rather than absorbing the
frequencies around you, when you start imprinting your intent on the universe
rather than receiving an imprint from existence.”
To
me economics, like many things in life, is all about unbiased observations,
unprejudiced perceptions, doing away with defensive statistical justifications,
cutting off camouflaging irrelevant logical fallacies, chaffing off bombastic
jargons, curtailing the instinct to churn out untested or untestable theories
and instead engage in interpretations of all the observed facts
uninfluenced by any ideological affiliations taking into consideration
various factors that impact and/or involved in these facts appropriate to the
context and relevant to the region.
[1] A new monk arrives at the monastery and is assigned to help the other monks in copying the old texts by hand. He notices, however, that instead of copying the original books, they are copying the copies.
So, the new monk goes to the
head monk to ask him about this. He points out that if there was an error in
the first copy, that error would be continued in all of the other copies. The
head monk says, "We have been copying from the copies for centuries, but
you make a good point, my son”.
So, he goes down into the
cellar with one of the copies to check it against the original. After many
hours still the head monk does not return.
So, one of the monks goes
downstairs to look for him.
He hears sobbing coming from the back of the cellar
and finds the old monk leaning over one of the original books sobbing and also
banging his head against the wall. He asks what's wrong.
You have really awakened us,
we have missed the ‘R’ [I am not referring to any party leader here].
“In the original the word is celebrate”
says the old monk with tears in his eyes.
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